Tom O'Neil's Inside Track

Oscars update: Tom O’Neil handicaps the Best Picture race – It’s a real derby, damn it!


This is “one of the strangest Oscar races I can ever remember,” gasps Sasha Stone at AwardsDaily.

Amen, comrade! Take the confounding, mysterious, WTF Oscar Best Picture contest, for example. Out of the top 7 flicks in Gold Derby’s list of our Oscar Experts’ racetrack odds, I can see a path for 6 of them, really, to win: “A Star Is Born,” “Black Panther,” “BlacKkKlansman,” “The Favourite,” “Green Book” or “Roma.”

The excellent “If Beale Street Could Talk” is ranked number 6, but it was totally snubbed at the SAG Awards. Not even Regina King got in! (Oh, come on! But don’t give up on her — she can still win the Oscar. More on that in a separate article.) “Roma” got snubbed at SAG, too, that’s true, but it was voted Best Picture by the L.A. and N.Y. film critics’ groups and its helmer Alfonso Cauron is out front to win Best Director, although he should be very, very worried by Spike Lee (“BlacKkKlansman”) and Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”). None of Gold Derby’s 32 Experts pick “Beale” to win Best Picture. See how all of them rank their predicted nominees according to likelihood of winning.

Tom O'Neil's Inside Track
Editor and President Tom O'Neil founded Gold Derby in 2000.
Tom's Latest Updated Predictions
Oscars Nominations 2019
( Best Picture )
Bet Points: 100
  • 1
    Green Book
    Green Book
    42/1
  • 2
    A Star Is Born
    A Star Is Born
    10/1
  • 3
    The Favourite
    The Favourite
    23/2
  • 4
    BlacKKKlansman
    BlacKkKlansman
    7/1
  • 5
    Black Panther
    Black Panther
    20/1
  • 6
    Roma
    Roma
    10/1
  • 7
    If Beale Street Could Talk
    If Beale Street Could Talk
    11/1
  • 8
    Mary Poppins Returns
    Mary Poppins Returns
    37/1
  • 9
    Vice
    Vice
    18/1
  • 10
    Bohemian Rhapsody
    Bohemian Rhapsody
    95/1
  • Updated on: 17 Dec 18, 18:37 pm PT